Lake and Mastriano’s Diverging Paths
Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano and Arizona Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake have a lot in common. They are both running in swing states that Donald Trump barely lost. Trump endorsed them both. The two carry some baggage from controversial statements they made during their primaries. Democrats viewed each of them as easier nominees to beat. They are running in states with competitive Senate races that feature controversial Republican nominees.
Despite these similarities, Lake, a former television anchor, leads her opponent by as much as double digits, while Mastriano, currently a state senator, trails significantly. The difference in Lake and Mastriano’s poll numbers shows that the type of campaign someone runs matters much more than their past miscues.
Over the last few years, political observers have repeatedly said that a certain candidate “can’t win.” It was Trump in 2016, then Ron DeSantis in 2018, and this cycle, Mastriano and Lake, among others. Democrats spent money to help Mastriano and Lake get nominated. Once the two won their primaries, many observers declared that their races were essentially over.
But polls showed their races tightening. From that point, Lake and Mastriano took different approaches. Lake remained active on the campaign trail, doing events with the Republican nominee for Senate, Blake Masters, and taking on any media outlet that would have her. Lake pressed her Democratic opponent, Arizona secretary of state Katie Hobbs, for a debate, but Hobbs refused.
Initially, Mastriano took a similar approach. He stayed on message by discussing safety and education, rather than continuing the “stop the steal” rhetoric that had helped him win the nomination.
As the campaign unfolded, however, Mastriano started to ignore fundamentals. He held mostly small rallies and did few public events. He raised little money and did not start running television ads until mid-October. He avoided Pennsylvania’s traditional media.
Mastriano and his supporters say that they are running a non-traditional campaign, like Trump’s, that gets voters to come out. The comparison doesn’t quite work, though: Trump spoke with all types of media, ran ads on all platforms, and set fundraising records. Lake has followed Trump’s strategy of engaging with the base and independents.
Some would say that Lake has inherent advantages over Mastriano. She has had a television career and is a natural public speaker. Additionally, her opponent Hobbs has faced negative headlines from personal scandals and gaffes, in addition to her dodging debates.
But Mastriano has been active in politics over the last four years in his elections for state senate and as a surrogate for Trump. He should be comfortable by now with traditional campaigning. Moreover, Mastriano’s opponent, Attorney General Josh Shapiro, has his own issues. Shapiro won a tight reelection in 2020 and botched a major corruption case. Mastriano is likely benefiting from the collapsing campaign of Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman, in the other major race in his state. In Arizona, the Democratic Senate candidate, Senator Mark Kelly, has not made major gaffes. With split-ticket voting at an all-time low, Mastriano should have been able to make some gains.
To galvanize support in the time remaining, Mastriano could go after the cavalcade of Democratic politicians that runs Pennsylvania. Outgoing governor Tom Wolf is unpopular. Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is facing major questions about his fitness for office. Philadelphia district attorney Larry Krasner’s soft on crime policies are becoming more unpopular.
Democrats assumed that if they could get Lake and Mastriano nominated, they would win those two states. They were right about Pennsylvania – but not because of Mastriano’s baggage. The Republican candidate’s troubles owe more than anything to the campaign he has run.
