Defining Political Parties in 2023 America
It’s party time! Let’s go down the rabbit hole of the political parties in 2023 America.
First, what is a political party? Damon Linker describes it perfectly: “A political party is an institution that aims to organize disparate factional interests around a vision of the common good that gets expressed in statements of principle and a policy agenda.”
And now, the meat of the matter. In 2008, four political scientists published “The Party Decides,” arguing that party elites (i.e., the party leaders) are the ones who put their thumbs on the scale for the nominees they prefer. The authors contend that, since political parties are in the business of winning elections, party leaders give favor to candidates who are “broadly popular.” Nominating popular candidates is, after all, how a party wins elections.
The ways that party elites could help shape an election are myriad, from formulating debate rules to favoring specific candidates to the scheduling of party primaries. The point is this: despite the “democratization” of the primary system, since the late 1970s, party leaders have had enormous leverage in deciding who gets nominated. At least, they did until 2016, when Donald Trump ran for president and, despite opposition from Republican elites, won the GOP nomination and then the general election.
“The Party Decides” was the stuff of furious contention – at least, at political science conferences. If you haven’t been in the presence of a barn-burning, full throated smack-down about “The Party Decides,” then a) you haven’t been to a Poli Sci conference in recent decades, and b) I burn with jealousy. To sum up: this is a huge deal for a very small group of people.
Yet the question lingers about our political nomination process, especially about the role of the “establishment” versus “the people.” Unsurprisingly, there’s strong opposition to the establishment on the right. On the left, not so much.
Put simply, the Democrats are holding true to “The Party Decides” argument; the Republican Party is not.
The Democrats are running Joe Biden for president – that’s straight out of “The Party Decides” playbook. Democrats rejiggered the primary schedule to put South Carolina first and shunned the idea of holding a candidate debate featuring their aging, incumbent president.
This is how progressives on the edge of the Democratic spectrum get shut out. They can win local and U.S. House elections, but statewide they have to pivot to the political center or they will get wiped out. Consider how Nancy Pelosi checked Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez into subservience; or consider the election of Joe Biden himself in 2020.
One complicating factor this cycle is the appearance of a Democratic challenger in Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the famous son of the most famous Democratic family in history. The only hitch in RFK Jr.’s giddy-up is that he’s not really a Democrat. Sure, he has the famous name, an environmental stand that the left adores, and the best lineage from Austin to Boston. But he also holds populist policy positions that would make all of Hyannis Port and Hickory Hill melt with revulsion. RFK’s worst trait is his vocal anti-vaccination stand, going so far as to compare American implementation of the Covid vaccination program with the behavior of Nazi Germany.
As The Bulwark’s Jonathan Last notes: “Kennedy is a stalking horse for the parts of MAGA that are not yet fully in the Republican coalition.” Indeed, RFK pulls support from both the extreme left and the extreme right. RFK, despite the name, popped collar, and Docksiders, is not a true Democrat, because the party is ignoring him. You know what we call that? Deciding.
In 1983, another noted academic, Nelson Polsby, wrote that political parties are always full of factions. With only two major parties, you have to fill a tent with different breeds of cat. I have long argued that the Democratic Party most closely resembles the bar scene from Star Wars. They’ve had to reconcile their divisions for decades, and bringing together all of those different groups of voters has made the party both bland and sporadically effective.
Though the Republicans are a much more homogenous party, divisions persist in the GOP tent as well. And this is the problem. The 2020 GOP “platform” was essentially a passive-aggressive middle finger saying: “We are the party of Trump. Thank you. Have a nice day.” (Just kidding. They did not say “have a nice day.”) The GOP today is defined by what it opposes, not by what it supports. It’s not subtle: they hate the libs. And that flies in the face of the “Party Decides” ethos.
Donald Trump, the man of many indictments who carries baggage that rivals Elizabeth Taylor’s in size and scope, holds a lock on a sizable portion of the GOP base voters. They love his rage, his incoherence, and his willingness to say transgressive things.
This is where the math comes in, and you’ll have to bear with me since I’m not a numbers person. It essentially goes like this:
- The country is basically divided in half, Democrats and Republicans.
- Trump has a lock on Republicans … but not enough of a lock to win a majority of the popular vote or the 2024 election.
- Republican Party elites know that Trump is less likely to win a general election when he repels so many Independents and suburban Republicans.
Thus, the Republican Party is led by the nose by its voters, which means that there may be such a thing as too much democracy. The voters want the guy who will likely lose, but the party elites are not in good position to try and thwart their own voters. After all, in a real democracy, the people have the power.
Today, the debates about “The Party Decides” continue, which means that you’re all officially registered for a poli sci conference, whether you know it or not. Let’s meet at the bar for some drinks and arguments about power and elites.
