Northampton County: PA’s Ultimate Swing County
As we enter the stretch run of the 2024 presidential election, all eyes will be on Pennsylvania, the most critical swing state on the electoral map. Deep within the Keystone State is the swingiest of the swing counties, Northampton. It consists largely of Bethlehem and Easton, its two most populated cities, with some rural areas along the perimeter.
Northampton County and history go hand in hand when it comes to determining who notches Pennsylvania’s Electoral College votes. In 2016, Northampton swung for the winner, Donald Trump, after backing Barack Obama in his successful campaigns in 2012 and 2008 – mirroring the state’s result in each case. The Keystone State went back to blue for Joe Biden in 2020. Northampton County has voted with the state in every presidential election since 1948. That year, Northampton went with Democrat Harry Truman, the winner, while the state supported Thomas Dewey of the GOP.
I recently returned to the county in which I was born and spent the first 34 years of my life to check in with registered voters in both urban and rural areas. The results were wide-ranging.
Patricia, 64, lives in the Lower Saucon section of Bethlehem. She is a registered nurse closing in on retirement and the widow of a Gulf War veteran. “I am very concerned about the economy,” she says. “I believe we’ve been in a recession for two years. I think Donald Trump is a terrible role model, but I have far more faith in his ability to get our economy back on track than [Kamala] Harris. I’ve never voted for him before, but I feel like he’s my only choice. My best choice.”
Next, I spoke with Eric, a 41-year-old dispatch supervisor who resides in Forks Township, an upper-middle-class suburb of Easton. Eric came close to losing his job in 2018 and 2021 when he voiced his support of Trump and criticism of Joe Biden on Facebook. He took a different approach to answering my questions. “I believe free speech is under attack. Certainly, I’m worried about how far I can stretch my paycheck, as well as what has occurred with illegal immigration, but I can’t get past the First Amendment fights we are seeing in many spectrums across this country. We should not be permitting speech that favors one candidate while simultaneously squashing the support of another. I’m a Republican. It’s one of the two major parties in this country. When did that become a crime? Trump’s not perfect. He shoots his mouth off too much and shoots himself in the foot at times, but I align with his core policies.”
Along the Lehigh and Delaware Rivers lies Southside Easton, just off Interstate 78. It’s a working-class section of Easton and extremely diverse. I chatted with Kassandra, 47, who wouldn’t commit to Trump or Harris. “I feel mildly insulted when people just make the assumption that I’ll vote for Harris,” she says. “What has she done for me the last four years? What has Joe Biden done for me? I manage a convenience store and also bartend twice a week to make ends meet. I am pro-choice and I truly resent what Donald Trump did with female healthcare; that said, I’m open to voting for him, but I need to know how he will make my life better. I wish we had better options. I’ll likely decide before Halloween.”
Derrick and Jennifer are a married couple in Bethlehem entering the prime of their lives. Derrick is a 40-year-old massage therapist; Jennifer, a 38-year-old bank manager. Reversing the usual gender paradigm, Derrick is voting for Harris, while his wife is voting for Trump. “I hear lots of men say you have to vote for Trump, and I ask myself, why?” Derrick says. “He wasn’t awful, but he failed to deliver on a lot of what he promised. I actually think Harris wants to handle the major issues in a different manner than Biden has. I don’t think it’ll be a continuation of the last four years. She knows she has to deliver. I know Trump. I’ll roll the dice with her.” Jennifer laughs and disagrees. “Trump is no different than any other male politician or Fortune 500 CEO. He doesn’t turn me off like the media hopes that he will. I am antiwar, and he was so great when it came to global peace. That, plus the economy and crime are in his favor. I look forward to teasing Derrick about his terrible pick.”
Thomas is a 29-year old small-business owner in Stockertown, just a few miles north of Forks Township in Easton. Plenty of Trump/Vance signs can be seen in the front yards here. Thomas thinks the election will be a landslide for Trump. “If you care about the core basics of economics, law and order, peace and prosperity, you’ll vote Trump,” he says. “If you care about making history, and then regretting the person who represents the milestone, you’ll vote Harris. If it’s based on issues, it’s Trump all day. If you are into optics and feelings, you’ll vote Harris. But a vote for her is nothing new. She’s been here. She’s his (Joe’s) number two. Trump in a landslide.”
Northampton County is the bellwether county to end all bellwether counties in Pennsylvania. Whoever wins here will likely win Pennsylvania – and perhaps become our 47th president.
