Pennsylvania is Now the Bellwether on Democrats’ Future
The Keystone State was expected to be the bellwether on November 5th, and it didn’t disappoint. Not only did Donald Trump carry Pennsylvania by two points—a better showing than his razor-thin victory in 2016 – but the state also flipped a U.S. Senate seat and two House seats for Republicans. Yet now Pennsylvania will arguably play an even bigger bellwether role: showing whether Democrats will learn from this drubbing and deliver policies that make voters’ lives better.
Kamala Harris’s loss means Democrats must choose a new candidate for the next presidential election, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro will likely be near the top of the list. His presidential ambitions are widely known within the state, and post-election, many national Democrats blame Harris for not selecting him as her running mate. Shapiro knows his path to the nomination: Win re-election in 2026 while building a bigger national profile for a presidential run in 2028.
But November 5th showed that Americans want something new from Democrats, which bears directly on Shapiro. Like Joe Biden before his election in 2020, Shapiro presented himself to voters as a moderate – someone who would work across the aisle to, in his own words, “get shit done.” But like Joe Biden, Shapiro shifted to the left the moment he took office, largely ignoring voters’ priorities.
More than anything else, Pennsylvanians are worried about rising costs. Shapiro knows it and, during his campaign, expressed concerns about Pennsylvania’s participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, an energy tax that makes life more expensive for families and job creators. Yet instead of trying to lower costs, he’s defending the initiative in court while supporting a new state-based plan that’s essentially the same thing. Nor has he lifted a finger to enact his campaign promise to accelerate corporate tax cuts, which would boost wages for Pennsylvania workers.
It's a similar story with education, which is a major priority for many Pennsylvanians, especially in Black and Hispanic communities that trended toward Trump and Republicans in the election. Shapiro made national waves when he endorsed Lifeline Scholarships to give kids in failing public schools funding to go to private schools. Yet since taking office, he caved to pressure from his fellow Democrats in the legislature, vetoing his own campaign promise. He’s offered only empty rhetoric to parents ever since, giving the right appearances without getting on the wrong side of teacher unions. He’s sacrificed many of his voters and their children in the process.
To be sure, Shapiro is not the most extreme Democrat in Pennsylvania. But he has nonetheless contributed to his party’s leftward sprint. During my time in the state legislature, between 2019 and 2022, I saw both parties work together on issues like pension reform and criminal justice with a different Democratic governor. Two years later, there seems to be little desire from Shapiro or any lawmaker on the left side of the aisle to reach across and find real solutions to Pennsylvanians’ problems.
Such liberal intransigence and lack of concern for everyday Americans is exactly what voters rejected on November 5th. While many party leaders and media allies are calling on Democrats to double down on their unpopular agenda and opposition to bipartisanship, that’s not the lesson the left should learn from their resounding loss. Democrats need to prove they care about the real-world issues facing families. Shapiro could easily show his party the way forward.
The smart move would be for Shapiro to dial back leftist demands that make life harder for Pennsylvanians. That means ending efforts to drain the state’s rainy-day fund and slow the state spending that also fuels inflation. It means getting the bloated bureaucracy out of the way so businesses and energy companies (including green ones) can get moving. It means finding compromises on tax cuts. And yes, it means demanding that Democrats in the legislature get behind urgently needed school-choice programs, like Lifeline Scholarships.
The governor’s choice is his, but his decision won’t just affect Pennsylvania. Shapiro’s actions will reverberate nationwide, signaling to Democrats what they should do. On Election Day, Americans clarified what they want, and they’re already watching to see who listens. If Josh Shapiro won’t learn the lesson of the Democrats’ loss, it’s hard to see who will.
