GOP Lessons from Northampton County
In Pennsylvania, Northampton County voting patterns typically determine how the Keystone State will go when it comes to presidential electoral politics. That trend remained consistent and proved true again in 2024.
For the second time in three elections, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania and the presidency, as Northampton County, which consists largely of Bethlehem and Easton, decided to support the Republican nominee. Bethlehem is partially Northampton County and partially Lehigh County, heading from west to east. As you travel through Northampton County, you will see how it quickly goes from city life to the suburbs to even the countryside. It’s a very diverse county that toggles back and forth between GOP and Democratic control. Northampton is the very definition of a bellwether county.
To understand what happened this past November, I spoke to Northampton County GOP Chair Glenn Geissinger as part of my GOP County Chairman Series. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Northampton County is the ultimate bellwether county in the key swing state of Pennsylvania. Donald Trump won it again in 2024; he won it in 2016 as well but lost it in 2020. How goes Northampton, so goes Pennsylvania. Why do you think that has been the case for roughly 75 years?
Northampton County is truly representative of Pennsylvania. We are home to Bethlehem and Easton, totaling roughly 120,000 people. The whole northern tier – Republican, very agricultural – is representative of the middle of the state. And then Hanover, Nazareth, Palmer, and Forks are very representative of suburban Pennsylvania and the nation as a whole.
What, specifically, do you think Trump did well to win the county, the state, and the election?
What the RNC did well was learn from its mistakes in 2020, and so did Trump. He understood that what he does best is connect with people in large-scale rallies. He utilized that tool well, which he couldn’t do in 2020 because of Covid. He endorsed Dave McCormick early; he and McCormick ran their own campaigns but were linked and united in voters’ minds. He helped drive strong Republican turnout. Norco proved consequential: Ryan Mackenzie ran an excellent race to defeat Susan Wild in the 7th congressional district. He had a base in Lehigh. He needed that in Norco as well. The 7th congressional worked well together with the four counties in the district – all of Carbon, all of Lehigh, all of Northampton, and part of Monroe. It’s the economy, stupid, without question: that was the Number One issue, along with national security/border crisis, and its effect on crime.
Within Northampton County, did you see any interesting trends, perhaps in Easton or Bethlehem?
In Latino areas of Bethlehem, the GOP did very well. The Republican ticket did substantially better there. The northern part of the county in Republican areas saw strong turnout, and a much better vote margin in the cities, which was paramount. The second trend was much better performance with mail-in ballots, better than ever before. Full credit goes to Lara Trump and the RNC here. We opened down less than 2 to 1, instead of being down 4 to 1, as in the past. We pushed in-person early voting. There were two-hour wait lines at courthouses.
How do you view the state as a whole right now—is Pennsylvania red, blue, purple, trending purple, etc.?
If you look at Pennsylvania traditionally, the state is purple. It’s a purple state but now its sliding red, because the Democrats have gone too far left for most Pennsylvanians. People haven’t changed, but the Democratic Party has; it is less moderate than it used to be. I’ve had interesting conversations with smart people. A medical professional told me that the GOP is the party of blue-collar workers. Not necessarily union workers, but the party of labor – and of ethics and Catholic faith, too. It’s different than the days of my youth, when it was Blue Dog Democrats and Catholics in the same party. Republicans are getting the economic and social issues right. Our vision of limited government and free enterprise and individual rights is winning.
