Lessons from the Lancaster Co. Special Election

Amid the cheers and groans not only in Pennsylvania, but also the nation, following this week’s state Senate special election in Lancaster County, observers are asking: Is Trump in trouble? Are Republicans in trouble? And, to paraphrase: “Toto, are we not in Lancaster 2016 anymore?”

Probably not. Maybe. Yes.

So, what happened? The Democrats beat the Republicans … at a “game” known as a special election. Special elections are different than regular elections. In November 2024, voter turnout in Lancaster County was almost 75%; yet, in the special election it was just 29%. Special elections are more about gamesmanship – estimating how many votes will be needed to win, identifying who your voters are, and, getting them to vote.

How did the Democrats do it? First, mail-in voting. Before the polls opened on Election Day, the Democrat – James Malone – was ahead by over 5,300 votes. That’s a huge gap in a special election. In the end, almost 33% of Malone’s votes came from mail-in ballots.

On the Republican side, just over 13% of Josh Parson’s votes came from mail-ins. It’s very hard to win a 100-yard dash if you let your opponent start at the 40-yard mark. Parsons – like other GOP candidates – almost caught his opponent, winning in-person election day turnout by almost 4,900 votes. But he was still 483 votes short.

In the general 2024 election, the GOP election day performance was 177% of the Democrats’ total; yet, in the special election, the GOP only produced 127% of Democratic votes.

When it came to getting their voters to vote, Democrats got an A+. Republicans, not so much. Think of this analogy: the Democrats got almost every drop of water out of their sponge; the Republicans’ “sponge” is still wet.

There are other keys to Malone’s win. He was credible – the mayor of East Petersburg – and, his tone and message worked. In special elections, when turnout is paramount, each candidate has two goals: motivate your voters; yet don’t inflame your opponent’s supporters.

Malone’s campaign message did just that. He did not run as an AOC clone – no speeches about men in women’s sports, defunding the police, or rants against capitalism. He message was an effective mix for a Democrat on Republican turf. He talked about “making things affordable.” And, when he went to the progressive song book to motivate his base, he used more benign phrases like being “inclusive” to represent all voices in Lancaster; he didn’t reject the overwhelmingly popular “school choice,” instead talking about supporting public education – and, when he did “attack,” he focused on Musk, not Trump.

Activists and Democratic super-voters smelled what he was cooking, but independents and regular Republicans weren’t motivated to vote against him.

And there is this reality. Democrats are mad as hell, want to stop Trump and fight back against the GOP. And, the GOP is very focused on defending Trump, DOGE, and the endless battles coming out of DC. Plus, Trump had won Lancaster County by 15%; so, nothing to worry about at home.

Trump inherited countless messes – and, fixing them is proving messy and challenging. Reagan experienced the same challenges in 1981 and 1982. Ultimately, it will be the results that matter: Is the economy growing? Are prices coming down? Is the border secure? Is the world more stable? The reality of the summer and fall of 2026 will impact those elections.

On Tuesday, a highly-motivated minority beat a distracted and complacent majority. Neither party should take the press headlines too seriously.

One additional fact that cannot be ignored long-term by Republicans: Lancaster County in 2025 continues to look more and more like a suburban Philadelphia County. Yes, Trump carried the County by almost 16%. But Gov. Shapiro only lost Lancaster by 1.7%. Yes, he outspent his GOP opponent by 11-1; but he spent a great deal of that money portraying himself as a moderate and his much lesser-known opponent as an extremist.

The Lancaster County of the movies – Amish families and family farms – still exists. But there are 10 Starbucks across the county – not counting those at colleges, hotels, or in Target or Giant stores. And, Lancaster County now has a Wegman’s and a Whole Foods.

In a typical general election between a conservative Republican and a progressive Democrat, the GOP will prevail – comfortably, at least in the near-term. In fact, I’ll wager that Senator-elect Malone is unlikely to survive in the 2026 general election.

So, what did we learn from this special election?

The suburbanization of Pennsylvania communities – from the Lehigh Valley to greater Harrisburg – means that the GOP has to be on their toes, build new coalitions and make sure their candidates and messages both energize their base and reach new voters – e.g., Dave McCormick.

Democrats are mad as hell – and that anger extends beyond protests, vandalizing Teslas and lawsuits. They are ready to vote in 2025 and, likely in 2026. In swing or swing-possible districts, Democrats need a results-oriented, people-focused message. Whether that is doable long-term is to be determined – the DC Democrats may pull them off the rails, as they’ve shown a tendency to do.

Pennsylvania Republicans must be unified – and work the “game.” Mail-in voting must not only remain a part of their plans. The GOP cannot allow Democrats to have more than twice as many mail-in ballots – and, in fact, the goal ought to be parity. And they need to understand that their work did not end with electing Trump.

Special elections mean a great deal to the candidates on the ballot. Yet, for the two parties, it’s a “stress test,” or a scrimmage. The key is what will each side learn.

The general elections of 2025 will show us what each party learned – or didn’t.