PA Dems Are in For a Surprise--But So Are Republicans
Political observers around the country have been perplexed by the midterm elections for governor and U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania. In a year that seems to strongly favor Republicans, Pennsylvania – the ultimate “purple” state – cannot seem to settle on a clear prediction for November.
This is partly due to polls that have been muddled by four unique top-ticket candidates. Doug Mastriano, the Republican running for governor, is a grassroots conservative who has been outspent by more than 1,000%, but who dominated his party’s primary and has inspired significant volunteering and rallies. His opponent, Josh Shapiro, served as Gov. Tom Wolf’s attorney general and, for better or worse, finds his candidacy has become a referendum on Wolf’s record. For U.S. Senate, a television doctor (and Muslim with Turkish citizenship), Mehmet Oz, faces a sitting lieutenant governor, John Fetterman, who suffered from a stroke last spring that has greatly affected his campaign.
These vivid personalities have waged their campaigns against the backdrop of historic inflation and an economic downturn, soaring crime, the threat of nuclear “Armageddon,” and intense enthusiasm over perennial issues like guns and abortion. In other states, Republicans enjoy a comfortable advantage. Party-registration trends and generic-ballot polling in Pennsylvania are also trending Republican – but when it comes to the gubernatorial and Senate race, polling has been all over the map.
It’s become a cliché to point out that most polls oversample or overestimate Democratic strength. But there is reason to believe that even the most sophisticated polling methods cannot capture the complexity of Pennsylvania voters’ assessment of these statewide candidates. In a midterm year that could have been much more predictable, Pennsylvania stands as the nation’s wildest wildcard.
This year has brought demographic and coalition shifts that may bring surprises in November. A significant contingent of Pennsylvania Republicans has vocally supported Shapiro for governor, which could buoy his statistical strength in polls based on partisan voter identification. Shapiro seems to be angling his campaign toward a law enforcement platform, leveraging his experience as attorney general, so it is reasonable to think that a sizable, vocal minority of moderate Republicans could split their ticket and vote for him.
On the flip side, Doug Mastriano is a strong favorite with the Republican grassroots for his election-integrity efforts and sympathy with those who protested the 2020 election. But as several pollsters have noted, Republicans in Pennsylvania will refuse pollster outreach at triple the rate of Democrats. Especially in the wake of recent FBI raids of conservative activists, not all Republicans are willing to have their names listed as Mastriano supporters – preferring to cast a secret ballot in November.
In the Senate race, polling indicates that Oz has ostensibly swung from trailing by double digits to running neck-and-neck or even leading by 4%. If these polls are in any way indicative, perhaps they reflect Oz’s decision to back away from ham-fisted social media bickering to on-the-ground campaigning with a humanitarian flair. Perhaps these poll numbers represent what other commentators have measured: a tidal shift in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs toward Oz as an “unobjectionable” moderate.
Fetterman, meanwhile, has one of the best-funded political machines in the country, boasting $48 million in campaign funds – but his progressive social platform has scared off what is left of the traditional blue-dog Democrat voters, and even his allies in the media are uncomfortable with his seeming inability to speak clearly post-stroke, a deficiency made painfully clear in the candidates’ October 25 debate. Voters who have not officially switched parties could become November turncoats.
The upshot: Democrats should not rest on their polling laurels in the lead-up to November 8. But Republicans should not be overconfident, either – because the GOP’s surprise might come after the election.
Similar to 2020, the 2022 election has raised numerous questions about the legal treatment of mail-in ballots, a voting method heavily favored by Democrats. Issues like signature matching, ballot curing, and ballot dating leave several county boards of elections unsure how to proceed in ballot canvassing and tabulation. The inequal distribution and lack of security to protect drop boxes from illegal ballot harvesting has concerned election integrity advocates, as has the geographic disproportion of election funding from outside sources. When acting Secretary of State Leigh M. Chapman instructed counties to simply ignore a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on undated ballots, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court was forced to intervene and order counties to set those ballots aside.
To top it off, without the endorsement or knowledge of local boards of elections, Pennsylvania’s Department of State has approved 5 million unsolicited voter registrations and official mail-in ballot applications to be sent to Democrat voters across the state. The Republican grassroots, needless to say, has been preparing to supervise the election at the precinct level and dispute any malfeasance in court.
But Democrats are no less prepared for the post-election contest than the Republican base – and the party will fight in court. Unresolved legal questions will undoubtedly lead to challenges and a 2020-like election overtime period. This is a midterm where the outcome will determine how Pennsylvania elections are run in 2024 – by a Mastriano administration bent on “election integrity,” or by a Shapiro administration countering “voter suppression.”
One thing is certain regarding November 8 and the weeks or months that follow: there are no certainties.
Andrew Cuff is Communications Director of Knight Takes Rook (ktr.agency), a political agency of Beck & Stone. He lives in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, with his family of six. Follow him on Twitter @AndrewJCuff.
