Off-Year Races Will Shape Pennsylvania’s Future
Reading too much into any single election, especially low-turnout primaries, can be futile. Still, two upcoming primaries and a special election have the potential to reshape the political environment in Pennsylvania and nationally.
First, a special election to replace disgraced Rep. Mike Zabel (resigning due to sexual harassment allegations) in Delaware County will determine control of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. Democrats currently hold a single-seat margin. Republicans already are in control of the State Senate; with control of the House, they can pass constitutional amendments that bypass Gov. Josh Shapiro’s veto pen, just as they did when Gov. Tom Wolf was in office. Republicans could use the constitutional amendment process to implement voter ID, restrict access to abortion, and dismantle Pennsylvania’s regulatory structure.
The 163rd House seat has been trending Democratic recently. In 2014, Republican Jamie Santora won the seat with 53% of the vote. But in 2022, Zabel, a Democrat, won with 64%.
There’s been some panic in Democratic circles, with rumors of polls showing a closer race than expected. The Pennsylvania House Democratic Campaign Committee has even sent fundraising emails referencing the race’s closeness. Without public polling, it’s hard to tell if this is just a fundraising and turnout tactic, but given the stakes in the race, it’s worth taking at face value.
The second important election is the Allegheny County Executive race to replace term-limited County Executive Rich Fitzgerald. The county executive oversees elections in Allegheny County, including the implementation of mail voting and drop boxes, making the seat critically important heading into 2024. Fitzgerald is leaving office with a 72% approval rating, and a former key staffer is sitting in the lieutenant governor’s office. Progressives had some disagreements with Fitzgerald – particularly around oil and gas development, appointments, and his handling of the Allegheny County Jail – but he has navigated a rapidly changing electorate on both the Democratic and Republican sides. And he has left his imprint on almost every local or state policy implemented in Western Pennsylvania.
Three candidates appear to have the inside track to succeed him: County Treasurer John Weinstein, County Controller Michael Lamb, and state Rep. Sara Innamorato. Weinstein has held elected office since 1999. He has a cash advantage that has bought him weeks of television ads. Lamb, who has served as County Controller since 2008, enjoys Fitzgerald’s support. Innamorato was elected to the state house in 2018; she has carved out a strong progressive profile that resembles that of U.S. Rep. Summer Lee and Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey. Publicly available polling shows the race relatively close, with Weinstein and Lamb in the lead and Innamorato trailing. But no public poll has appeared since all the candidates went on television with paid media. It would not be surprising to see Innamorato drive high turnout among progressives while Weinstein and Lamb fight for the support of more traditional Western Pennsylvania Democrats.
The third important race is the contest for the Philadelphia mayor’s office. The field is large.
Rebecca Rynhart is a progressive technocrat who recently served as city controller, where she identified waste and other areas of improvement for Philadelphia’s government. Former councilwoman Cherelle Parker has consolidated support among many electorally powerful unions and elected officials, piecing together a coalition similar to that of Mayor Jim Kenney.
Former councilwoman Helen Gym’s background as an educator and activist has endeared her to loyal followers, who hope that an enthusiastic base and strong ground game will overcome media spending by other candidates.
Former councilman Alan Domb has spent more than $7 million and cut a profile of a businessman and diligent councilmember who has rooted out waste in city government.
Businessman Jeff Brown stormed into the race with lots of television spending and a unique profile of a compassionate leader who helps formerly incarcerated Philadephians get jobs and build new lives. He has also come under fire for his alleged coordination with a SuperPAC, for implying an endorsement from former First Lady Michelle Obama, and for attacking teachers and other union workers.
So far, the race has been a referendum on Mayor Kenney’s time in office, with the candidates criticizing everything from his approach to public engagement to the city’s response to crime.
The only public poll shows the top five candidates bunched between 11% and 18%, with Rynhart leading.
The winner of the race is likely to get about 20-25% of the vote. At this point, I’d rather be in Gym’s position, given her performance in the last city council election and the energy behind her candidacy. But it would not be surprising to see any of the top five candidates win.
A potential Gym election could set up an interesting dynamic in Harrisburg. Republicans have zeroed in on progressive district attorney Larry Krasner, pushing policies that would undermine his authority and even pursuing impeachment. Any winner is likely to face some opposition from Harrisburg Republicans, but Gym’s progressivism could be a strong provocation, especially if she attempts to pass policies such as a local wealth tax. Gov. Wolf vetoed several Republican attempts to preempt local policies, but Republican preemption efforts could find new energy depending on the mayoral and special election outcome.
Off-year elections, especially local ones, don’t get the attention of presidential or even midterm elections – but from control of the Pennsylvania State House to the administration of the election in Allegheny County, these three races will affect policies on the local, state, and federal level for years to come.
