Spring Primary Might Not Be Rep. Summer’s Season

The first black woman to represent Pennsylvania in Congress, Rep. Summer Lee has already experienced tremendous political success at the ripe age of 36. But Lee’s path to Congress was tenuous, and in 2024, her Democratic primary campaign in the 12th congressional district is already shaping up to be one of the state’s most hotly contested.

Rising to prominence in 2018 after defeating a longtime incumbent state representative by a 2-to-1 margin in the Democratic primary, Lee went on to win the general election and began solidifying her brand as a staunch progressive out to upset the status quo. Lee’s ability to win campaigns stands out: she has prevailed in every race of her career, including reelection to her state house seat in 2022 while simultaneously winning the congressional primary to succeed Rep. Mike Doyle in a district that includes Pittsburgh.

The political winds blew in Summer’s direction in 2022. In 2024, it might be a different story.

Much has been made of the money that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) spent in its unsuccessful attempt to defeat Lee in the 2022 primary. AIPAC has already indicated its plan to spend $100 million to defeat a group of five lawmakers in 2024, and Lee is on the target list. Lee’s campaign is likely to receive significant outside support as well, and while its strength is in grassroots mobilization, it’s likely to face a serious spending disadvantage, even with the much needed strong fundraising haul her campaign just announced. 

Lee now has a voting record in Congress, and her positions related to the conflict between Israel and Hamas have drawn public condemnation from leading figures in Pittsburgh’s Jewish community. Roughly 50,000 Jews live in the greater Pittsburgh community, and Lee received 48,000 total votes in her congressional primary victory in 2022.

Some of Lee’s recent actions indicate awareness of the potential political vulnerability a motivated and mobilized Jewish community poses to her reelection chances. Shortly after 40 rabbis and cantors criticized her leadership, Lee’s office published a letter signed by more than 130 members of Pittsburgh’s Jewish community praising her work, though the letter’s credibility was soon called into question – nearly half the signers were listed by first-name only, and many were listed as anonymous.

AIPAC money and the Israel-Hamas war are not the only factors working against Lee’s reelection. She will likely also face a formidable opponent.

Until recently, Bhavini Patel was the only candidate to publicly announce her intention to run for Lee’s seat in the 2024 primary this spring. Not yet 30, Patel has a compelling background as a first-generation American of Indian ancestry who serves on Edgewood Borough Council and worked for former Allegheny County Executive Rich Fitzgerald.

Patel’s campaign shows some signs of early momentum. It reported respectable Q4 fundraising numbers and has already earned praise from the Cook Political Report. But Patel needs to grow her name recognition substantially in the coming months to compete with Lee. Patel also launched unsuccessful campaigns for this congressional seat in 2022 and for an open state house seat last year, adding a now or never sense of urgency for Patel’s current campaign if her political career is to blossom.

Furthermore, the fresh entrance of Laurie MacDonald, president and CEO of Pittsburgh’s Center for Victims, could complicate things for Patel. MacDonald has extensive roots in the district, and if her campaign generates momentum, it could split the opposition vote with Patel’s campaign.

Still, it’s important to remember how tenuous Lee’s hold on this congressional seat was to begin with. In 2022, Lee won the open primary seat by less than 1,000 votes, even with the advantage of being the only woman in an election taking place just two weeks after the leaked draft of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson ruling that elevated the issue of abortion rights. Moreover, as a young black woman in a progressive electorate, Lee was able to contrast herself against her primary rival, Steve Irwin, a white male – yet Irwin managed to come within 1% of beating Lee.

We’re still months away from any votes being cast in this race. But regardless of how the dynamics could shift between now and then, Summer Lee may need to run her strongest campaign yet if she wants to avoid being a one-term congresswoman.