What PA Can Learn From Michigan’s Primary
I generally take polling data with a grain of salt, especially after 2022’s failed red wave. But as we approach the general election this fall, it’s interesting to examine polling data and compare it with the betting markets as well as actual primary results.
Donald Trump was projected by many pollsters to defeat Nikki Haley on Saturday night in the South Carolina primary by between 25% and 30%. As of Sunday morning, with almost all the votes tabulated, he held a 23-point lead (61% to 38%). It was slightly less than expected, but still impressive when you consider South Carolina as an open primary state. So far, throughout the GOP primary season, the polls have been very precise.
From a betting market perspective, Trump is considered a wider favorite to become the 47th president of the United States and reclaim the White House. The RealClearPolitics average has Trump at 43.7%, Joe Biden at 28%, Michelle Obama (not a candidate) at 9.2%, Gavin Newsom (not a candidate) at 6.8%, Vice President Kamala Harris at 3.8%, and Nikki Haley at 3.2%. Other betting markets and sportsbooks/casinos such as BetUS have Trump at 51% and Biden at 29%. Bovada has Trump at 39% and Biden at 25%. Oddsmakers are some of the sharpest people around, so clearly, they know something.
That said, Tuesday’s primary results in Michigan will tell us a lot more. Here is the first swing-state primary of the 2024 election.
In 2020, Biden carried Michigan by 154,188 votes. But this year, Biden could face staunch pushback in Michigan, especially from the Arab-American community, specifically in Dearborn, where nearly 55% of the population is Arabic or North African.
On the Republican side of the ledger, it’s part one of a two-step process to win all of the delegates in Michigan. Less than 33 percent of the delegates will be won Tuesday night, the remainder being awarded after 13 congressional district meetings that will be held March 2, leading up to Super Tuesday on March 5. Any registered voter may participate in either primary in Michigan. The Great Lakes State does not register voters by party.
How Haley performs here could be an indicator of things to come in swing states that Biden won by smaller margins, such as Pennsylvania. Biden carried Pennsylvania by 80,555 votes. He held Wisconsin by just 20,682 votes, Georgia by only 11,779 votes, and Arizona by 10,457.
If Haley makes a strong showing, even in defeat, it could offer a forecast for states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. In 2020, Trump took North Carolina, but it was Biden who won the other six swing states. In the race to 270 electoral college votes, Trump will likely need to win three of these states, if not four. In 2020, Biden secured 306 electoral college votes to Trump’s 232. The Electoral College awards 11 votes to the winner of Arizona, 10 to Wisconsin, 16 to Michigan and Georgia, and 20 to Pennsylvania.
Polls are one unit of measurement. The betting market is another. But it’s swing states that will tell the story. How Donald Trump fares Tuesday in Michigan against Nikki Haley may begin to tell us how that story will pan out this year.
