What Does the Election Reset Mean for Pennsylvania?
On Sunday, the U.S. presidential race experienced its fourth hard reset in just 7 weeks: the incumbent president ended his campaign and endorsed his vice president, which was preceded by Trump’s criminal convictions, Biden’s debate meltdown, and Trump surviving an assassination attempt.
For some time, I’ve thought that Biden leaving the race for president had strong “when, not if” energy – and on Sunday afternoon Biden did, in fact, leave the race.
Some had argued that the Democrats would engage in an intricate, national “mini-primary” if Biden left the race, but I never expected that. What Democrat would stand up and say he or she wanted to challenge Kamala Harris, thus extending their party’s summer of uncertainty? (Remember, politics really does abhor a vacuum.)
Sure enough, less than 24 hours after Biden exited the race, Harris has solidified support both within the Democratic Party’s official structure and beyond.
Simply put, there will be no debates moderated by former presidents Obama and Clinton, nor Oprah, for example, among Democrats looking to run for president. Their first “regular” primary for president this year (Biden’s), was a nothing burger, and their second presidential primary lasted about a day.
Democrats want to put the focus back on Trump, and they’re already trying to set up the race as the prosecutor versus the felon. (Harris was San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general prior to her time in the U.S. Senate.)
They also view this race now as a chance to clean up some unfinished business leftover from 2016: namely, electing the first female president. That fell by the wayside when Hillary Clinton fumbled away that race.
The rising support that Trump enjoyed following that terrible Saturday in Butler, Pa., has now been negated by Biden’s exit, and the movement of the campaign pendulum toward 45 has been halted. Team Harris reported on Monday morning that she had raised $50 million (not a typo) since Sunday.
With Biden now in the rear-view mirror, the vice president will have her chance to shine and will rather quickly, I believe, make her choice of a vice-presidential running mate. I’d be surprised if she drags it out as Trump successfully did with J.D. Vance's selection.
Her choice of running mate could be the fifth reset of this race. Much speculation revolves around Pennsylvania’s own Gov. Josh Shapiro, as the Keystone State tops any list of swing states. Shapiro, moreover, over-performed in the 2022 gubernatorial election for a variety of reasons.
But there are several other successful Democratic governors who are ahead of him, in the sense that they have already won re-election to a second term. Notably, Govs. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Roy Cooper of North Carolina come to mind. Interestingly, Cooper and Harris were attorney general of their states at the same time – and apparently enjoy a strong relationship.
Regardless, Harris has a big bench to choose from. If it is indeed Shapiro, then we’ll all need to get used to saying Gov. Austin Davis. Davis is the former second-term back bencher state representative from Pittsburgh now serving as lieutenant governor. Wouldn’t that shake up Pennsylvania’s 2026 gubernatorial race?
Harris never had to be a strong public campaigner as she ascended the ladder in California politics, as it’s such an overwhelmingly Democratic state. And her 2020 primary race for president was an abject failure. Since then, though, she’s been selected as Biden’s running mate, elected vice president, and has served in that role for nearly four years.
Will she be any better out on the stump as the #1 than she was as #2? That’s a low bar to clear.
Remember, it was just last month, prior to that fateful night in Atlanta, when Trump told Real America’s Voice: “Maybe I’m better off losing the debate. I’ll make sure he stays. I’ll lose the debate on purpose, maybe I’ll do something like that.”
As Sherlock Holmes was fond of saying: the game’s afoot.
