Gauging Voter Sentiment in Bucks County
The 2024 presidential election could hang on Pennsylvania. The Keystone State will be the biggest prize among the swing states, with nineteen Electoral College votes up for grabs. According to the latest Real Clear Polling average, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by less than one point. Trump carried Pennsylvania in 2016, enroute to victory over Hillary Clinton. Four years later, Joe Biden defeated Trump in Pennsylvania on his way to winning the presidency.
A hotbed for state politics, Bucks County is likely to be play a pivotal role in who takes Pennsylvania this November. This summer, for the first time since 2007, Bucks flipped red with a Republican voter-registration majority. It’s a dramatic turnaround from even June 2020, when Democrats had a 15,582 registration advantage over Republicans.
To get a sense of what is driving this narrow flip from blue to red, I spoke with five registered Bucks County voters.
Charles from Quakertown is a 44-year-old public school teacher. He has been at various times a registered Democrat or an Independent. Now he has switched, for the first time, to the Republican Party and will be voting for Donald Trump.
“My wife and I had a comfortable life pre-pandemic,” he says. “Even with life returning to normal, the economy hasn’t. My wife is also a schoolteacher, and we were always able to take two vacations a year and dine out once a week. That buffer is gone and it hasn’t come back. I know Trump can be an antagonist, but I only care about my bottom line. We had more under Trump, despite his distractions. I want that back. I’m voting for Trump.”
Denise from Doylestown is a 32-year-old physical therapist. She has never voted before and had never even registered to vote until 2022.
“I’ve never really considered myself political until the fall of 2022,” she says. “Full disclosure: I voted for Josh Shapiro, as I myself am Jewish. That said, I have since left the Democratic Party over its failure to do what is necessary to defend Israel. I’ve been appalled by the anti-Semitic comments across this country over the last year. I’m grateful that John Fetterman has taken a stand, but it’s not nearly enough. I will be voting Trump because he had peace in the Middle East. He gave us a better economy. We had a safer country and a safer world with him. I just won’t advertise my support for Trump because I work with lots of Democrats and Harris supporters. But I feel I’m on the right side of the issues.”
Cheryl is a 59-year-old black female from Perkasie who considers herself a moderate Republican. She is a homemaker and is married to an attorney. She has an extensive history of voting for both parties.
“I have voted for Clinton, Bush, and Obama, and then Trump in 2016,” she tells me. “I voted for Biden and Harris in 2020. I am pro-choice, moderate, and really wanted to see Nikki Haley win the nomination. I love Trump, though, when it pertains to the economy and the border. These are the two prominent issues in America. However, I’m extremely disappointed with his role in the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade. I am still struggling with this reversal, and it’s the one thing holding me back from voting Trump a second time. Thankfully, I have more time to decide. I’m leaning toward Trump, but I will go with my gut. It’ll be Trump or I’ll be sitting this one out. Harris is not an option because I feel as if she’s just a continuation of Biden.”
Mark is a 25-year-old from Sellersville currently pursuing a career in law enforcement. The 2020 election was the first for which he was of age to vote, but he passed on the chance.
“My mother and father are liberals who do not agree with Trump in many regards, but I come from a family that has always been pro-police and has backed the blue. The last four years of lawlessness and disregard for cops has driven me to serve my community, and Trump is endorsed by police unions. I’ll be voting Trump and doing so via mail-in-ballot.”
William from Levittown is a 67-year-old retired small business owner. He closed his barbershop in 2019 but has since fallen on hard times.
“I decided to close my shop at 62, with my sights set on retirement in Florida with my wife,” he says. “After the pandemic, we thought the economy would bounce back and our nest egg was protected. It hasn’t, and it wasn’t. I am now considering opening my shop once again and working two or three days a week to make ends meet. I’ve only voted Republican twice in my life – Reagan in 1984 and Bush’s kid in 2000. My social values align with liberals but my fiscal values are better met by Trump’s economic policies.”
Speaking with these Bucks County residents was enlightening. The predominant sense I got from our conversations was that, while they don’t love Trump, they see their bottom lines as having been better served when he was in the White House.
One thing is for sure: Bucks County will play a major role in determining who wins Pennsylvania.
