Pennsylvania Is Truly the Keystone State

Pennsylvania: it’s the biggest electoral prize among the swing states, with the closest margin – decided by about 1 percent in 2016 and 2020 – and polls show the race within the margin of error, though most show incremental movement to Donald Trump. And here, incremental could be HUGE.

For most of my life, the most important swing state was Ohio: home to four presidents, with urban and rural communities, it’s partly northern and midwestern and even a bit southern (Cincinnati’s airport is actually in Kentucky). Since the 1960s, Ohioans had voted for the winner in every presidential election—until 2020, when they supported Trump over Biden. President Richard Nixon, who analyzed and wrote about elections and history, used to tell prospective candidates, “run for president like you’re running for Governor of Ohio.”

Times have changed. Even diehard Democrats concede that Trump will carry Ohio. The new advice: “Run like you’re running for Governor of Pennsylvania.” Since the party conventions, at least one of the four principals on the two tickets has been here every week—often, several times a week. I suspect that they will be here right up through Election Day. Even Trump’s famous shift at a McDonald’s was in one of the “swing counties” in this swing state—in Feasterville, Bucks County.

The contrasts in how the two campaigns are approaching things here speak not only to different styles but different strategies – and, comfort zones.

Harris is focusing on suburban communities, and especially trying to pry away soft Republicans, toting Liz Cheney with her across suburban Philadelphia. Most of her campaign events tend to be in the suburbs, too, in her new prefab “town hall” format—in which audiences are invited or preselected, as are the questions.

Trump is everywhere—suburbs, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and blue-collar areas. He’s spending much of his time with African-American, Hispanic, and blue-collar workers, as is J. D. Vance.

As for Tim Walz, he’s here less and less. Trying to tout his midwestern bona fides, Walz has focused mostly on western Pennsylvania. He’s flannel jacket – with the tags still on; Harris is lattes and Whole Foods.

We are watching the continuing transformation of the two national parties before our eyes right here in Pennsylvania. Their bases and growth opportunities are diverging.

In 2020, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by just over 1 percent. Harris is playing defense here; Trump is playing offense. But they’re both here. As analysts like to say, if you want to know what’s really going on in a campaign, look to where the candidates are spending their time, how they’re spending their money, and what they’re talking about.

Harris is aiming a message focused on abortion rights, climate change, and limiting guns. While she now talks about wanting to fix inflation and makes reference to her “middle class” upbringing, it’s clear that she spends most of her time—and seems most comfortable—with voters who are far less affected by inflation, crime, and illegal immigration. Her message is geared for suburban, higher-income voters.

Trump and Vance talk about inflation, groceries, crime, school choice—and illegal immigration.

In a state where the margin of victory has been around 1 percent, each candidate is trying to move the needle at the margins – to pick up some new voters, chase the few undecideds, and boost turnout. That’s why it’s noteworthy that Harris has largely staked her fate on the suburbs.

Catholic Pennsylvania took note of how Harris skipped the Al Smith dinner with Cardinal Dolan in New York City. Trump attended, and he and Vance are fighting to grow support among traditional Democrat bases – African-American, Hispanics, and union members. In a state with ports and the fourth-largest deposits of natural gas on Earth, the building trades and related union workers make up a large bloc of voters.

Harris’s lack of connection with traditional Democrats and black leaders in Philadelphia has gotten noticeable enough that some local and national stories have picked up on it.

Mail-in balloting has already started in Pennsylvania. Harris is putting all her eggs in the suburban basket. It’s a risky strategy. She’s not Joe Biden and she doesn’t have Governor Josh Shapiro on her ticket.

A Trump win here would all but guarantee his election. It’s why he races from McDonalds to meet Amish framers and then is off to a Steelers’ game, all in one day.

He’s running to be “Governor of Pennsylvania.” She’s running to be “Governor of Suburbia.”

Which strategy will gain more voters? The winner is likely to be president.