GOP’s Path to a New Majority in Pennsylvania
What a year for Pennsylvania Republicans. Not since Willy Wonka’s Grandpa Joe jumped out of his sick bed and danced has there been such an unforeseen turnaround.
They entered the year 446,566 registered voters behind the Democrats. Their presidential nominee had carried the state only once since 1988. They had not defeated an incumbent Democratic U.S. senator since 1994. They had not elected a Republican as attorney general since 2008. They were being outperformed by about 4-1 in mail-in voting. And they hadn’t elected a new GOP state senator in Philadelphia since Ronald Reagan’s landslide election in 1984.
Then came Election Night 2024. Donald Trump carried the state as he had in 2016. The GOP swept all three statewide row offices, including attorney general. The Democrats’ margin in mail-in voting was reduced to just under 2-1. The voter-registration deficit was reduced to 267,283, with the GOP growing three times faster than the Democrats, and Independents outpacing Democrats, too.
Dave McCormick defeated the legendary Sen. Bob Casey, who had held the seat since 2006 and been a statewide officeholder since 1996, and whose father had been governor.
And, for the first time since 1984, a new Republican was elected to the state Senate from Philadelphia – defeating an incumbent. Joe Picozzi was the only challenger to defeat an incumbent state legislator across the state.
The data show not only what happened last November. They are also suggestive of how the GOP can continue its winning streak – or lose its narrow margins back to the Democrats.
President-elect Trump won just over a majority. He received the largest number of votes of any statewide candidate. Yet reelected state Treasurer Stacy Garrity won a larger percentage of the vote in her race. (It is not uncommon in Pennsylvania for the most votes to be cast in the race for president, but for many voters to “drop-off” from there – not voting for some other offices.)
Looking to Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, some results are enlightening. Trump’s vote totals led the Republican ticket in all but 22 counties, where Garrity led. Yet taking into account the “fall-off,” Garrity’s percentage of victory led the ticket in 44 counties.
McCormick ran ahead of Trump in Chester County (a suburb of Philadelphia) in raw numbers and percentage, reflecting his relative strength in suburbia. It’s notable that many of Garrity’s leading counties were in two pockets of the state: northeastern Pennsylvania and the suburban communities – not only around Philadelphia, but also the Lehigh Valley and the increasingly suburban region of Lancaster to York, the capital region of Dauphin and Cumberland, and suburban Pittsburgh.
Trump showed how to get his coalition to a majority. That majority plus Garrity’s wins and McCormick’s margin in Chester and strong showing across suburbia offer the GOP a pool of voters that can get them to 52%, 53%, or more. And that’s before one considers the local candidates for the state legislature who often outperform the top of the ticket.
Republicans’ path to growing a statewide majority begins in Philadelphia – surprisingly enough. Trump was the first GOP candidate to hit 20% there since 1992. That may not sound impressive, but in 2012, Mitt Romney took just 13.9%. Losing Philly by less than 4-1 sure beats losing it by 6-1. Plus, Trump’s growth with Catholic, blue-collar, African-American, Hispanic, and first- and second-generation communities of Chinese, Indians, Ukrainians, and Russians show opportunities for even higher numbers.
Trump’s empathizing with the pain of inflation, fighting crime, supporting school choice, respecting religion, supporting small business, and being tough on the border won over many of these voters. Dave McCormick spent more time in Philadelphia neighborhoods than any candidate since former Sen. Rick Santorum. There’s a path there for Republicans.
The magic of Trump is that he can make inroads in Philly neighborhoods while remaining beloved in much of rural Pennsylvania – home to the third-largest rural population of any state. Yet Garrity’s numbers show that there are thousands more votes available to the GOP.
The Achilles’ heel for the GOP has been suburbia, especially in a state where victories used to be built on winning the suburbs of Philadelphia. It’s not uncommon to see Republicans losing in these areas by more than 20 points. But two things have changed. First, it’s now clear that the GOP can carry the state even when losing suburban Philly. Second, Trump, McCormick, and Garrity show that the GOP can carry Bucks County and Northampton County in the adjacent Lehigh Valley, while cutting their deficits elsewhere to under 20%, even under 10%.
They cannot take their eye off the ball on tactics to increase their numbers: voter registration and mail-in voting. They have to continue building on the momentum to shrink the Democratic advantage. The GOP showed that it can narrow the Democratic mail-in advantage to under 2-1.
Republicans should focus on rural voters and inner-city Philadelphians – both of whom feel forgotten by politicians; increase outreach to first- and second-generation Americans; highlight support for parents and school choice; and use the tools necessary to get supporters out to vote.
If they do it well, the GOP can create a winning majority. If they fail, Democrats can claw back and flip close races.
Most important of all for Republicans: having run a campaign focused on fixing the problems that voters talk about at their kitchen tables, now it’s time to deliver on what they promised. Fix what the Democrats broke.
